Philippines to attain upper middle-income status by late 2025, says NEDA

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines remains on track to achieving upper middle-income status by late next year after exceeding its gross national income (GNI) per capita target last year, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said.

To enter upper middle-income status by late next year, NEDA Secretary Arsenio Balisacan told reporters on the sidelines of the National Artificial Intelligence (AI) Roadmap 2.0 and Center for AI Research last Wednesday that the country’s GNI per capita would need to grow by 6.7 percent from last year’s.

“The threshold is $4,500 (GNI per capita). You need to have that as the minimum to get into the club of upper middle-income countries. We are now (at) $4,230. So you only need 6.7 percent growth,” he said.

Data released by the World Bank earlier this week showed the Philippines remained a lower middle-income country with a GNI per capita of $4,230 in 2023, up from $3,950 in the previous year.

NEDA said this surpasses the 2023 target range of $4,130 to $4,203 GNI per capita set in the Philippine Development Plan in 2023 to 2028.

For the current 2025 fiscal year, the World Bank said lower middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita between $1,146 and $4,515.

To be part of the upper middle-income grouping, a country’s GNI per capita should be between $4,516 and $14,005.

GNI per capita measures the economic output per citizen, encompassing both domestic and international earnings.

A higher GNI per capita reflects greater economic prosperity and a higher standard of living.

Balisacan said the latest World Bank data is in line with the government’s expectation of reaching upper middle-income status by late next year.

He also said the growth rate needed in GNI per capita to move to upper middle-income economy status is within reach.

Given the latest estimates, the NEDA said the Philippines is poised to achieve upper middle income status by 2025, provided the economy sustains a robust growth rate in 2024 and 2025.

Last week, Balisacan said attaining upper middle-income status by next year is possible if the economy meets its six to seven percent growth target this year and if the local currency will not depreciate much.

If not by late next year, he said the country could enter upper middle-income status by early 2026.

The Philippine economy posted 5.7 percent growth in the first quarter of this year.

To achieve the government’s six to seven percent growth target for this year, Balisacan said earlier that the economy has to expand by 6.1 percent in the remaining quarters of the year.