ASIAN currencies strengthened on Wednesday while most equities wobbled, with investors focused on US inflation data that can influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory.
The broad MSCI emerging markets currency index was up 0.1 percent while the MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.1 percent.
The Philippine peso and Malaysian ringgit strengthened 0.7 percent and 0.3 percent against the dollar, respectively, and were among the top gainers in the region.
The dollar index, which measures the currency against six major peers, was last down 0.3 percent.
US consumer price index (CPI) due data later in the day would provide crucial policy clues to traders, although the Fed has made it clear that employment has taken on a greater focus than inflation.
While the Fed is widely expected to trim rates, speculation over the size of the cut persists, especially after a mixed labor report on Friday failed to provide any clarity on the US central bank’s next move.
“A weaker-than-expected or within-the-expectation reading will bode well for stronger regional currencies for the rest of the week,” said Ruben Carlo Asuncion, chief economist, Union Bank of Philippines.
Shares in Bangkok were down 1.5 percent and were the top losers among emerging Asia equities. Those in Manila and Jakarta lost 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively, as of midday. Equities in Singapore, on the other hand, were up 0.4 percent.
The average household debt has reached a record high in Thailand, Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, due to slow economic growth, lower incomes and high living costs, a university survey showed on Tuesday.
Financial stability concerns like high household debt will likely dampen Bank of Thailand’s enthusiasm for lower rates, Barclays said in a note.
Bangkok stocks were closely followed by equities in Kuala Lumpur and Shanghai, which slipped 1.1 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively.
Separately, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump met for their first and possibly their only debate before the November 5 elections, which polls show will be a tight race. They sparred over several topics, including the economy, immigration and Trump’s legal woes.
“Global trade is likely to be better off if Harris wins the election, which should be positive for exports and FX in emerging markets, including Asia,” said Ratasak Piriyanont, investment strategist at Kasikorn Securities, adding that Trump’s “aggressive rhetoric and policy uncertainty” could induce higher volatility in the market.
“His protectionist measures are also a drag on the Asian economy, and Asian FX would be worse off if Trump wins the election,” he said.
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