THE crude tanker fleet is expected to grow by 0.5 percent in 2024 and 1.2 percent in 2025, driven mainly by Aframax and Suezmax segments, the Baltic and International Maritime Council (Bimco) forecasts.
Bimco, the world’s largest shipping association, released a report titled “Tanker Shipping Market Overview & Outlook,” which estimates that the crude tanker fleet will grow by 0.5 percent in 2024 and 1.2 percent in 2025.
Aframax ships are oil tankers with a capacity of under 120,000 deadweight tons. Suezmax vessels are medium-sized oil tankers, bigger than an Aframax but smaller than a very large crude carrier (VLCC).
The report states, “The moderate growth in the crude tanker fleet reflects the limited new orders and the focus on Aframax and Suezmax segments.”
In contrast, the product tanker fleet is expected to grow by 1.6 percent in 2024 and increase to 4.8 percent in 2025 as new vessels ordered in 2023 are delivered. The sharp increase in product tanker growth is largely driven by the influx of new vessels and recovering oil demand.
Crude tanker fleet growth will be driven by the Aframax and Suezmax segments, while product tanker growth will be led by long-range 2 (LR2) and medium-range (MR) tankers. LR2 tankers are forecast to grow by 14.2 percent by 2025, with the MR segment growing by 5.8 percent. However, rapid fleet growth may lead to oversupply in 2025, potentially exceeding demand.
Freight rates for product tankers are rising and expected to strengthen in 2024 as oil demand recovers. Nevertheless, the influx of new tankers in 2025 could strain market conditions due to oversupply.
Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Red Sea, are expected to impact shipping routes, with vessels rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. This will likely boost tonne miles and support demand in 2024, even if cargo volumes remain subdued.
The report states, “Should attacks on ships in the Red Sea continue and prevent vessels from returning to normal routing in 2025, crude tanker tonne miles are forecast to grow by 2.0-3.0 percent instead of 0.0-1.0 percent. Similarly, product tanker tonne miles would grow 1.0-2.0 percent instead of falling 5.0-6 percent.”
If tensions ease in 2025, a return to normal routes may reduce sailing distances, leading to weaker demand for product tankers, though crude tankers could benefit from shifting global trade flows.
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