PAGASA warns of tropical cyclone-like threat for the next 2 weeks

September 4, 2024 | 5:42pm

MANILA, Philippines — After Severe Tropical Storm Enteng (international name: Yagi), several tropical cyclones could develop within the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) for the next two weeks, state weather bureau PAGASA said. 

In a Facebook post on Wednesday, PAGASA said there are three tropical cyclone-like vortices (TCLV) that could develop within the PAR during the period.

TCLVs are broader rotating weather systems that are not yet fully developed into a cyclone.

It is different from low-pressure areas or LPAs, which is a region of lower atmospheric pressure that does not necessarily have a structure of a cyclone.

September 4 to 10 forecast  

The first weather system is likely to develop over the northern section of the PAR, with a high probability of becoming a tropical cyclone.

The second weather system is anticipated to emerge over the northeastern portion of the Tropical Cyclone Advisory Domain (TCAD), also with a high likelihood of forming into a tropical cyclone. TCAD, according to PAGASA, is the “middle domain” located between the PAR and the tropical cyclone information domain. 

The third weather system is predicted to form between the southeastern boundaries of the TCAD and the Tropical Cyclone Information Domain (TCID), though with a lower to moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. The state weather bureau explained that TCAD completely encloses the PAR but is smaller than the TCID. 

September 11 to 17 forecast

The first TCLV is expected to stay near the northern boundary of the PAGASA monitoring domain (PMD), continuing to show a high likelihood of tropical cyclone development. 

The third weather system is projected to move northwestward over the eastern part of the PMD, with a strong chance of forming into a tropical cyclone and possibly entering the PAR during this period.

The fourth TCLV is likely to emerge near the western section of northern Luzon, though the probability of it developing into a tropical cyclone is currently low, according to PAGASA. 

On Wednesday early morning, Enteng moved out of the PAR and is expected to continue its westward path. 

In the past three days, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) has recorded 15 deaths, 15 injuries and 21 missing persons due to the effects of Enteng.

A total of 1,720,568 individuals were affected by the inclement weather.