THE peso will likely end the year at P55.30 against the dollar, Metrobank Research said, following last week’s US Federal Reserve’s 50-basis point (bps) interest rate cut.
The US central bank’s “dovish” cut has led to a weaker greenback and Metrobank Research said that the exchange rate could further improve to P54.50:$1 next year.
The forecasts also take into account likely net dollar inflows from remittances in the fourth quarter that will offset a projected rise in the trade deficit, it added.
The Development Budget Coordination Committee expects the peso-dollar rate to range between P56-P58:$1 this year. The 2025-2028 forecasts were retained to P55-P58:$1.
The peso, which earlier in the year fell to the P58:$1 level after the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said it would cut ahead of the Fed, has since returned to P55:$1 territory.
The BSP, which last month, started easing via a 25-bps cut, will likely follow this up with a repeat in October, Metrobank Research said.
It expects 75 bps of rate cuts this year, meaning another 25-bps cut in December, that will bring the policy rate to 5.75 percent by the end of 2024.
The Fed, meanwhile, will likely announce two 25-bps cuts in November and December that will bring the Federal Funds Rate to 4.25-4.5 percent.
This will lead to an interest rate differential of 125 bps, which Metrobank Research expects to be maintained next year with the BSP and Fed both cutting by a total of 100 bps.
These will bring the BSP and Fed policy rates to 4.75 percent and 3.25-3.5 percent, respectively.
Be the first to comment