S&P Global Ratings has revised its Philippine growth projections, trimming the outlooks for 2024 and 2026 but marginally hiking that for 2025 amid a “mostly solid” expansion in the region.
“Southeast Asian growth has remained generally solid, benefiting from the export recovery and robust domestic demand,” the debt watcher said in a report on Monday.
It adjusted its 2024 growth forecasts for Malaysia (5.1 percent from 4.3 percent previously), Singapore (2.4 percent from 2.2 percent) and Vietnam (6.2 percent from 5.8 percent).
However, it trimmed the growth forecast for Thailand (2.8 percent from 3.4 percent), “assuming less expansionary fiscal policy,” and “nudged it down” for the Philippines.
S&P now expects the country to post 5.7-percent growth this year, down from 5.8 percent previously. This is below the government’s 6.0- to 7.0-percent target.
The 2025 projection was raised to 6.1 percent from 6.1 percent, also below the 6.5- to 7.5-percent goal for the year, and trimmed that for 2026 to 6.4 percent from 6.5 percent — again under the 6.5- to 8.0-percent target.
Growth stood at 6.0 percent as of the middle of this year following 5.8- and 6.3-percent outturns in the first and second quarters, respectively.
On Tuesday, Finance Secretary Ralph Recto said that the country was still on track to achieve this year’s growth goal.
“The economy is continuously growing,” he said, predicting a 6.1-percent expansion.
Slower inflation, Recto continued, could contribute to stronger economic growth.
He said that inflation would likely ease to 2.5 percent this month and average 3.4 percent this year, within the 2.0- to 4.0- percent target.
S&P expects inflation to slow to 3.4 percent this year, 3.1 percent next year and settle at 3.0 percent in 2026 and 2027.
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