LOS ANGELES — California’s reputation as a hothouse of progressive politics is being tested in a string of U.S. House contests that are again expected to play into which party controls the chamber next year.
Despite its distinction as a liberal protectorate, both parties see races in the nation’s most populous state as crucial battlegrounds and are pumping millions of dollars into campaigns that stretch from the beaches of San Diego and Orange County to the almond groves and vineyards of the Central Valley farm belt.
Two years ago the state played a pivotal role in securing the gavel for Republicans. Now only a handful of votes separate the rival parties in the House, with 220 Republicans, 212 Democrats and three vacancies.
California has 52 House seats — more than any other state — and 10 are considered in play. About half of those are viewed as toss-ups. Democrats dominate California, holding every statewide office and outnumbering registered Republicans by a nearly 2-to-1 margin statewide. But Republicans retain pockets of strength and picked up four House seats in 2020.
The most competitive contests are concentrated in Republican-held districts that were carried by Joe Biden in 2020. Overall, Republicans hold just 12 of the state’s House seats.
At least on paper, Democrats have more than enough registered voters to seize a cluster of Republican-held districts. The lingering question, as in the past, is will they vote?
Democrats are likely to benefit from an elevated turnout in a presidential election year, with Vice President Kamala Harris, a former California U.S. senator and attorney general, leading the ticket. But how that will play out in closely divided swing districts is less clear.
Democrats are warning about former President Donald Trump’s possible return to Washington, threats to abortion rights and gun violence. Republicans fault Democrats on crime, a porous southern border, high taxes and inflation that is squeezing household budgets.
Rep. Pete Aguilar, the third-ranking House Democrat, who lives in Redlands, east of Los Angeles, has predicted the decisive fight for the chamber “will run through California.”
Democrats keep coming for Rep. Mike Garcia.
The last Republican congressman anchored in heavily Democratic Los Angeles County, Garcia, a former Navy pilot who flew more than 30 combat missions during Operation Iraqi Freedom, has displayed a surprising ability to beat the odds in a district with an 11-point Democratic registration edge. He is being challenged by Democrat George Whitesides, a former NASA chief of staff.
The once-conservative 27th District runs through suburbs and high desert north of Los Angeles. Garcia, a supporter of former President Donald Trump with a conservative voting record, was first elected running against California’s liberal-leaning government. “I don’t want my country to turn into what my state has become,” he said at the time.
Whitesides, who also is a former CEO of Virgin Galactic, says he would use his business experience to solve problems. He has spotlighted Garcia’s opposition to abortion rights, labeling him an extremist.
Garcia put out a statement to clarify his stance on the issue, saying, “I oppose a national abortion ban — California’s law on abortion stays the law — and I support exceptions for rape, incest, and life of the mother.”
National Republicans have run ads depicting Whitesides as soft on crime. Garcia, like other GOP candidates, has been attacking his rival and other Democrats on inflation and taxes.
Garcia’s military service is an asset in a district that is home to defense industries and popular with veterans, Los Angeles police officers and firefighters. The son of a Mexican immigrant father, his Hispanic surname also is beneficial in a district with a significant Latino population.
Orange County once was considered a conservative holy ground, where white, suburban homeowners delivered winning margins for Republicans year after year. It’s considered a foundation block in the Reagan revolution. But the county, which lies southeast of Los Angeles, has become more demographically diverse and Democratic over time, like much of the state.
The seat from the 47th District, which includes Huntington Beach and other famous surf breaks, is occupied by Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, a progressive favorite who in 2022 narrowly defeated former Republican legislator Scott Baugh. Porter, known for grilling CEOs during Capitol Hill hearings, stepped aside to run for U.S. Senate but lost in the primary. Baugh is making another run for the seat, this time against Democratic legislator Dave Min.
National Republicans have called the seat a top target.
Given the stakes in the closely divided district, the contest has been especially rancorous. Min ads call Baugh a “MAGA extremist” who would endanger abortion rights. Baugh says Min’s “extreme liberal views” are out of step with the district.
Rep. Ken Calvert is the longest-serving Republican in California’s congressional delegation, having been first elected in 1992. Two years ago he held off Democrat and former federal prosecutor Will Rollins by about 5 percentage points, and Rollins is back for another try.
The 41st District is about equally divided between Republicans and Democrats. The race is a priority for both parties: Porter and former U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer have been among the recognized Democrats fundraising for Rollins.
National Republicans have called Rollins an “extreme liberal.” Calvert brings the advantages of incumbency, but his conservative credentials and support from Trump could be liabilities in a district that includes many transplanted Los Angeles residents and the city of Palm Springs, which has a large concentration of LGBTQ+ voters. Rollins is gay.
Rollins says it’s time for new leadership and has called Calvert an extremist whose views don’t match the district.
By the numbers, the Central Valley’s 22nd District should be a Democratic stronghold. The party holds a 14-point registration edge over Republicans. But GOP Rep. David Valadao has kept a grip on the seat nonetheless.
He held the district from 2013 until January 2019, lost the seat for a term, then won it back in a 2020 rematch with Democrat T.J. Cox. Democrat Rudy Salas is trying to claim the seat this year after losing to Valadao in 2022.
In a region sometimes called America’s salad bowl for its vast agricultural production, Valadao has stressed his efforts to secure more water for farmers and willingness to work across the aisle, while depicting Salas as a tax-and-spend Democrat. “David has ignored partisan bickering and demonstrated his commitment to local priorities,” the Valadao campaign said in a fundraising pitch.
Salas, considered a moderate, has depicted Valadao as a Trump follower posing as a centrist. In Congress, he says, he will fight for lower drug prices, expanded health care and clean drinking water, which remains a chronic problem in some rural communities.
In the 13th District, Republican Rep. John Duarte is facing Adam Gray, the Democrat he defeated two years ago by one of the closest margins in the country, 564 votes. Duarte often is listed among the House’s most vulnerable Republicans, given that narrow victory.
Another factor is the 13th’s Democratic tilt, which is about 11 points over registered Republicans. There also is a large Latino population, similar to other Central Valley districts, but the most likely voters statewide tend to be white, older, more affluent homeowners. Working-class voters, including many Latinos, are less consistent in getting to the polls.
Both candidates have been stressing bipartisan credentials.
Duarte, a businessman and major grape and almond farmer, says his priorities include curbing inflation and crime and securing adequate supplies water for farmers, a perennial issue in the valley.
Gray, a former legislator, has criticized state water management and puts water and agriculture at the top of his issues list. He also says he wants improvements in infrastructure, renewable energy and education.
Republican Rep. Michelle Steel, a South Korean immigrant, is seeking a third term in the 45th District, which was specifically drawn to give Asian Americans a stronger voice on Capitol Hill.
The largest demographic in the district, which is anchored in Orange County, is Asian Americans, and includes the nation’s biggest Vietnamese community. Democrats hold a 4-point registration edge.
Steel first won the seat in 2020 and then again 2022 with a 5-point win. This year she faces lawyer and worker rights advocate Derek Tran, the son of Vietnamese refugees.
Steel has been outspoken in resisting tax increases and says she stands strongly with Israel in its war with Hamas. “As our greatest ally in the Middle East, the United States must always stand with Israel,” she said in a recent email. She advocates for more police funding and has spotlighted her efforts on domestic violence and sexual abuse.
Tran has warned of Republican threats to abortion rights. Steel opposes abortion with exceptions for rape, incest or to save the life of the pregnant woman, while not going so far as to support a federal ban. Tran also says a Trump return to the White House would put democracy at risk.
The race will be watched nationally for hints about the preferences of Asian American voters.
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