SYDNEY ― New Zealand’s jobless rate rose to a near four-year high in the September quarter as employment dropped by the most since 2020, cementing market wagers another outsized cut in interest rates will be delivered later this month.
Wednesday’s data from Statistics New Zealand showed the unemployment rate rose to 4.8 percent in the third quarter, from 4.6 percent the previous quarter and just under analyst forecasts of 5.0 percent.
Michael Gordon, a senior economist at Westpac, noted more young people had exited the workforce altogether so limiting the increase in measured unemployment.
“The bottom line is still that employers are shedding workers, and wage pressures are easing accordingly,” he added.
“That’s consistent with the view that inflation pressures are being reined in and that monetary policy no longer needs to be as restrictive.”
The economy has been struggling since the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) began raising interest rates aggressively in 2021 to fight surging inflation. The tightening has worked to tame prices but at the cost of lifting unemployment from a low of 3.2 percent.
Employment also fell 0.5 percent in the third quarter, the steepest drop since the same quarter of 2020 and beyond forecasts of a 0.4 percent dip. The job participation rate was 71.2 percent in the third quarter, under forecast of 71.5 percent.
The loosening labor market saw private sector wages rise a modest 0.6 percent in the quarter, dragging annual growth down to 3.4 percent.
Growth in overall wages slowed to 3.9 percent, a long way from the 7.6 percent peak seen in early 2023.
That easing should help put more downward pressure on inflation, which dropped to 2.2 percent in the third quarter from a 2022-high of 7.3 percent. That took inflation back into the RBNZ’s target band of 1.0 percent to 3 percent, encouraging it to flag a series of rate cuts ahead.
It has already chopped rates by 75 basis points in just two meetings, and markets are fully priced for another 50 basis points at its next meeting on November 27.
Swap rates even imply around a 20 percent chance the central bank could ease by a whopping 75 basis points, in part because the following meeting is not until the middle of February.
Just Tuesday, the RBNZ issued a bleak outlook for the economy, warning that more households faced default on their mortgages while increasing numbers of businesses were going bust.
Asked at a media conference what concerned him most, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr nominated unemployment as the stimulus from rate cuts would take months to feed through.
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