Signal No. 4 up over Cagayan as ‘Ofel’ nears super typhoon category

The state weather bureau placed the following areas under heightened storm alerts:

Signal No. 4

• northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Santa Teresita)

Residents here may face a significant threat to life and property due to Marce’s winds, which range from 118 kph to 184 kph.

Signal No. 3

• northwestern
• central, and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan (Claveria, Sanchez-Mira, Santa Praxedes, Pamplona, Abulug, Ballesteros, Aparri, Camalaniugan, Lal-Lo, Allacapan, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca, Lasam, Alcala, Amulung, Iguig, Santo Niño, Buguey) including Babuyan Islands
• northeastern portion of Isabela (Maconacon, San Pablo, Divilacan, Palanan)
• northern portion of Apayao (Flora, Santa Marcela, Luna, Pudtol, Calanasan)

Storm-force winds, ranging from 89 kph to 117 kph, may result in moderate to significant impacts in the area. 

Signal No. 2

• Batanes
• rest of Cagayan, the northwestern and southeastern portions of Isabela (Cabagan, Santa Maria, Santo Tomas, Tumauini, Ilagan City, Delfin Albano, Quezon, San Mariano, Dinapigue, Quirino, Mallig)
• rest of Apayao
• northern portion of Kalinga (Pinukpuk, Rizal, City of Tabuk, Balbalan)
• northeastern portion of Abra (Tineg, Lacub, Malibcong)
• northern and central portions of Ilocos Norte (Carasi, Vintar, Burgos, Adams, Pagudpud, Bangui, Dumalneg, Pasuquin, Bacarra, Piddig, Nueva Era, Solsona, Dingras, Marcos, Banna, Sarrat, Laoag City, San Nicolas, City of Batac, Paoay)

Gale-force winds, ranging from 62 kph to 88 kph, could potentially cause minor to moderate impacts in these areas.

Signal No. 1

• rest of Isabela
• Quirino
• Nueva Vizcaya
• rest of Abra
• rest of Kalinga
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• northern portion of Benguet (Bokod, Mankayan, Kapangan, Atok, Kabayan, Kibungan, Bakun, Buguias, Tublay)
• rest of Ilocos Norte
• Ilocos Sur
• northern portion of La Union (Luna, Sudipen, Bangar, Santol, San Gabriel, Bagulin, Bacnotan, Balaoan, San Juan)
• northern and central portions of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao, Maria Aurora, Baler, San Luis)

Areas under Signal No. 1 may experience possible minimal to minor impacts from strong winds, ranging from 39 kph to 61 kph.

Heavy rains, severe winds

PAGASA said heavy rainfall is expected over the following areas from the combined effects of tropical cyclones Ofel and Man-Yi in the coming days:

Thursday, November 14

• Intense to torrential rainfall (>200 mm): Cagayan and Isabela
• Heavy to intense rainfall (100-200 mm): Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Apayao and Kalinga
• Moderate to heavy rainfall (50-100 mm): Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya and Aurora

Friday, November 15

• Intense to torrential rainfall (>200 mm): Batanes
• Heavy to Intense rainfall (100-200 mm): Cagayan
• Moderate to heavy rainfall (50-100 mm): Ilocos Norte and Apayao

Saturday (November 16)

• Heavy to intense rainfall (100-200 mm): northern Samar
• Moderate to heavy rainfall (50-100 mm): eastern Samar, Samar, Albay, Sorsogon and Catanduanes

As Typhoon Ofel intensifies while approaching northern Luzon, the likelihood of issuing the highest tropical cyclone warning, Signal No. 5, remains possible.

Storm surge, sea conditions

The state weather bureau raised a storm surge warning for low-lying coastal areas in northern Luzon due to Ofel.

A moderate to high risk of storm surge with waves reaching 1.0 to 3.0 meters is expected within the next 48 hours over exposed coastlines in Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Cagayan (including the Babuyan Islands), Isabela and northern Aurora. 

A gale warning is also in effect over the northern and eastern seaboards of northern Luzon and the eastern coast of central Luzon.

PAGASA also issued warnings for dangerous sea conditions caused by Typhoon Ofel, affecting the following coastal areas:

• Very rough to high seas (up to 10 meters): northeastern Cagayan, Babuyan Islands
• Rough seas (up to 8 meters): Isabela, remaining parts of Cagayan
• Rough seas (up to 7 meters): Batanes
• Rough seas (up to 4.5 meters): northern Aurora, northern Ilocos Norte
• Rough seas (up to 3.5 meters): remaining seaboard of Aurora, northern Quezon, Polillo Islands, western Ilocos Norte
• Rough seas (up to 3 meters): northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, northern Camarines Sur
• Moderate seas (up to 2.5 meters): eastern Quezon, Albay, Sorsogon
• Moderate seas (up to 2 meters): Ilocos Region, Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Eastern Samar, Northern Samar

PAGASA warned mariners to avoid sea travel, particularly in areas with rough or high seas, and seek shelter until conditions improve.

Track, intensity outlook

The state weather bureau said Ofel will continue its northwestward path and may make landfall along the eastern coast of Cagayan or northern Isabela by Thursday afternoon. 

It is expected to pass near Babuyan Islands on Thursday night before shifting north-northeastward over waters west of Batanes on Friday. 

Over the weekend, the typhoon is expected to veer northeastward toward Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands.

PAGASA said that Ofel could still intensify further, with a high possibility of reaching super typhoon status due to favorable conditions, before potentially weakening over Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands by early next week.