Merkado Barkada
November 4, 2024 | 9:11am
Things are heating up! I’ll admit to being quite distracted by the US election and all of the fluctuations that concern for its outcome (either way) have caused in various markets like gold, silver, and bitcoin. Not distracted enough to miss our own PSEi’s flashes of weakness as it melts back toward the 7,000 psychological level, however. Lots of moving parts!
> PH: Monday starts with the end of the ALCPF preferred shares offer period. On Tuesday we get PH October inflation data from the PSA. The PSA presents again on Thursday morning, but this time it will be the Q3 GDP figure.
> International: All eyes will be on the US election, which will take place on Wednesday (our time; Tuesday in the US). Then, the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC will announce its interest rate decision on Friday morning in the wake of whatever happened on election day.
MB BOTTOM-LINE: This week is going to be a massive vibes check for the PH bull run. What will happen to the US market if Trump wins the election? What will happen to international asset markets like gold and bitcoin? What will happen to the US market if Harris wins the election? What if Trump follows his own precedent and refuses to accept the result of the election? While none of these questions have any real relation to our bull market, the mere fact we can ask these questions with a straight face means that we need to be prepared for the sentiment shockwaves that could rock our boat on this side of the ocean. It’s really unclear to me how (in a vacuum) either a Harris or a Trump presidency would impact PSE blue-chip stocks, but the uncertainty of a contested election would spike volatility and that could create opportunities for companies that experience shifts in their inputs. This is a big week for traders and investors alike.
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