8 party-list groups seen winning seats

EIGHT party-list groups are poised to win at least one congressional seat, based on a voter preference survey by Octa Research.

The fourth quarter survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews from Nov. 10 to 16, 2024.

“If the May 2025 party-list elections were to be held during the survey period, eight party-list groups would be assured of at least one seat in the House of Representatives based on the 4th Quarter 2024 Tugon ng Masa (TNM) Survey of Octa Research,” Octa said in a technical report.

Out of a list of 157 party-list organizations, the eight party-list groups garnering more than 2 percent support from likely voters and are on track to secure at least one guaranteed seat potentially are ACT-CIS, Tingog, Ako Bicol, Senior Citizens, Uswag Ilonggo, 4Ps, Tupad, and Akbayan, it said.

ACT-CIS topped the survey with 13.28 votes, followed by Tingog with 6.6 percent, Ako Bicol with 5.34 percent, Senior Citizens with 4.69 percent, and Uswag Ilonggo with 4.57 percent.

They are followed by 4Ps (3.43 percent), Tupad (2.34 percent), and Akbayan (2.23 percent).

“With a 13.38 percent vote, ACT-CIS is poised to obtain three congressional seats by securing one guaranteed seat in the first round and potentially earning two additional seats in the second round,” Octa said.

Tingog, Ako Bicol, Senior Citizens, and Uswag Ilonggo “are poised to win three congressional seats through the same process potentially.”

As to 4Ps, Tupad, and Akbayan, Octa said these “are set to potentially obtain two congressional seats by securing one guaranteed seat in the first round and obtaining one additional seat in the second round.”

Bayan Muna (1.70 percent) and Agimat (1.63 percent) also landed in the top 10.

They formed the top 20 along with AGAP (1.47 percent), 1-Rider (1.46 percent), Abang Lingkod (1.39 percent), Kusug Tausug (1.34 percent), 1Pacman (1.34 percent), Pamilyang Magsasaka (1.18 percent), Abamin (1.16 percent), Duterte Youth (1.08 percent), Ako Bisaya (1.05 percent), and Bagong Pilipinas (1.03 percent).

The survey, which had 1,200 adult respondents, had a ±3 percent margin of error and a confidence level of 95 percent.

“Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have the following margins of error at a 95 percent confidence level: ±6 percent for Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao,” Octa said.