Ateneo scientists improve prediction of sunny weather

December 8, 2024 | 12:00am

MANILA, Philippines — Researchers from the Ateneo de Manila University (ADMU) have developed a new method that improves sunny weather forecasts by as much as 94 percent.

ADMU and the Manila Observatory applied a Kalman Filter (KF), a mathematical algorithm, to minimize the discrepancy between forecasts and actual observations to as little as six percent, which could be a “promising alternative to more computationally expensive forecasting methods for solar energy applications.”

Scientists and weather forecasters rely on computer-generated simulation tools to predict the weather days in advance, with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model being one of the most well-known and widely used.

The Ateneo-led researchers said the study highlighted the potential of combining WRF-Solar and KF to enhance solar energy forecasting, vital for renewable energy planning in the Philippines.

“The findings also emphasize the need for further model optimization across diverse Philippine landscapes to ensure reliable solar energy predictions tailored to the country’s unique climatic conditions,” the university said.

The researchers said using the KF method improved solar energy forecasts for Metro Manila, reducing prediction errors by up to 94 percent with as little as three days of training data.

The best training period depended on the season: 42 days for the dry season and 14 for the wet season. While KF worked well for cloudy weather, it slightly overcorrected on clear days, the researchers explained.

“Results from the study, the first of its kind to assess performance of WRF-Solar and KF over the Philippines, will serve as a basis for a computationally efficient alternative to more intensive higher resolution and multiple ensemble member solar forecasts. Future work intends to focus on applying this method over different topographies in the Philippines, given the availability of irradiance data,” the researchers added.

ADMU said the findings of the study could directly benefit the country’s solar power, agriculture and other industries.

Apart from the Manila Observatory, ADMU researchers also partnered with researchers from the University of French Guiana, US Naval Postgraduate School, University of Tsukuba and the US Naval Research Laboratory’s Marine Meteorology Division.

Titled the “Application of Kalman filter for post-processing WRF-Solar forecasts over Metro Manila, Philippines,” the paper was published last Nov. 15 in the journal Solar Energy.