UNEMPLOYMENT in the Philippines will likely slow in 2024 from a year earlier despite an uptick in October, Maybank Research said on Monday.
The jobless rate edged up to 3.9 percent from 3.7 percent in September, the Philippine Statistics Authority reported last Friday, with underemployment — an indicator of job quality — also rising to 12.6 percent from 11.9 percent.
The labor force participation rate — a measure of the number of the working-age population who are working or looking for work — also softened to 63.3 percent from a month earlier.
Despite these numbers, Maybank Research said it was maintaining a 2024 unemployment rate forecast of 3.8 percent, down from the 3.9 percent average as of the end of October and lower than the 2023 result of 4.3 percent.
It noted that tourist arrivals were higher as of end-November at 4.92 million, up 9.5 percent year on year but below the 7.7-million goal for 2024.
South Koreans accounted for a 26.8-percent share of total arrivals, and Maybank Research noted that Manila and Seoul had signed a deal to implement a memorandum of agreement on tourism cooperation for 2024 to 2029.
Employment in the Philippine tourism sector, it said, had risen to 6.2 million last year and was on track to hit the 6.3 million target for 2028.
The sector accounted for 22 percent of jobs in services as of last year, Maybank Research said.
Services, which provides most of the jobs in the Philippines, had a share of 61.0 percent of total employment as of October, up from 60.1 percent a year earlier but down from September’s 62.8 percent.
The PSA blamed bad weather for the worsening of the labor market situation, with several storms said to have influenced decisions to seek jobs.
Most of the employed were wage and salary workers (63.8 percent), followed by the self-employed without any paid employees (27.7 percent), unpaid family workers (5.9 percent) and employers in family-operated farms or businesses (2.6 percent).
Maybank Research also noted that minimum wages had increased in most regions in the country, with 10 out of 16 tripartite wage boards having ordered upward adjustments.
In particular, it said that minimum wages in Metro Manila had been raised by P35 to P610-645 per day beginning July 17.
The Senate in February also approved a P100 increase in daily wages for private sector workers, Maybank Research added, but the House of Representatives has yet to pass a counterpart measure.
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