December 17, 2024 | 12:00am
What would you expect to see when you hear hoofbeats on a farm? A crazy horse or an inconsiderate neighbor doing karaoke? Chances are, you’ll choose a horse. The location gives the clue. You’re on a farm with few people, much less a neighbor. On a farm, if there are houses, they’re built hundreds of meters away from one another.
It’s the same basic rule that doctors follow. “When you hear hoofbeats, think about horses, not zebras.” That’s because horses are more common than zebras. That principle was developed by Theodore Woodward (1914-2005), a respected academic physician at the University of Maryland.
In treating out-patients with no laboratory exam result yet, doctors would diagnose a case as the horse representing the most likely illness, rather than a zebra representing a rare disease.
Another example, bordering on fiction, is the case of Akiko Bagonggahasa, a 20-year-old woman from Paete, Laguna who loves Japanese food. Purportedly, her surname under the old Tagalog dictionary means “newly sharpened” when applied to paet (chisel) reflecting Paete’s reputation as the carving capital of the Philippines.
Today, in a judgmental world, Bagonggahasa offers an unpalatable meaning as “newly raped.” With zero knowledge about Akiko, which of the following two choices would best describe her nationality? (A) Japanese (B) Filipino.
Most people would bet on A because Akiko is a Japanese name. This is complemented by her love for Japanese food. While Akiko is a familiar name for a Japanese woman, Bagonggahasa is an unusual surname in the Philippines which gives you a reasonable hint that she could be a Filipino.
A certain Magnolia Elesis Neilson on Facebook claims that the Bagonggahasa family hails from Paete. They were able to change their undesirable surname to “BASA BAGONG HASA,” probably through judicial action, except that we don’t know why it is spelled out in capital letters. But who cares?
A quick search on Facebook tells us there are at least four persons who still sport the Bagonggahasa surname. Outside of Facebook, there are more amusing Filipino surnames like Baboyan (piggery farm), Bayag (scrotum), Gago (stupid), Kabaong (coffin) and Tanga (fool) to name a few, as listed by Catalogo Alfabetico de Apellidos, an official 1849 publication during the Spanish time.
Idea board
We are forced to conclude the severe lack of information. At least in the medical profession, doctors follow Woodward’s theory which tells us that the most likely diagnosis is the most common in a certain period, like COVID-19 in the years between 2020 and 2022.
On a farm, when we hear hoofbeats, we suspect horses rather than zebras, which is a rare occurrence on the farm but not on a safari. The same thing could happen in the workplace. Unless you work for Toyota or its suppliers, chances are management would rather do a dictatorial, top-down approach in communicating with people.
Many dictator-managers would often suggest whatever is on top of their minds, without a serious vetting process. This is a dangerous practice. Management is usually blinded by their experience which may have been successful under a different context before. The other side of the fence tells us that it’s better to encourage ordinary workers to participate in problem-solving and decision-making because management can’t do it alone.
This can be done with a generic suggestion program that encourages employees to define problems, analyze the root cause, and generate the most likely solution. It takes time but is worth the effort. One approach in seeking people’s ideas is the idea board where everyone can make a comment or contradict another opinion.
It is an open whiteboard or anything, like a transparent glass panel of a conference room allowing the workers to write their concerns about a certain policy or process. Sometimes, employees can simply write their ideas, complaints, or suggestions in Post-It Notes or its equivalent. There are many variations.
After one week or as soon as all available spaces are fully occupied, management may photograph or document the result. A summary of the pros and cons of those ideas is posted on the bulletin board. As soon as the best idea is chosen and implemented for monitoring, the concerned employee is rewarded, assuming they’ve identified themselves in the process.
Incurable bias
Here’s another quizzer: You’ve been told that ABC Enterprise has received this year’s Employer of the Year award, mainly because of its highest labor productivity and lowest attrition rate in the industry. Which of the following is the likely reason? (A) Its employees receive the highest pay package because of the labor union’s efforts. (B) Its management has a long-time dynamic employee empowerment and engagement program.
Under normal circumstances, option (B) is the likely answer because even if you don’t know anything about that organization, you’ll choose empowerment as a time-tested strategy of many organizations even outside of Toyota and other dynamic organizations. This is easy to understand like the Bagonggahasa family who hails from Paete, Laguna, and its legendary art carvings.
This is an important caveat. No matter how smart you are, you’ll often prescribe the answer on top of your mind because of your incurable bias toward your positive experiences in the past even if they’ve already become obsolete. Thank me later. Helping you remove your bias is my small contribution toward reducing your future mistakes.
If not, you can write a book about mistakes in the near future.
Rey Elbo is a quality and productivity improvement enthusiast. For free insights, contact him on Facebook, LinkedIn, X or email [email protected] or via https://reyelbo.com
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