MANILA, Philippines — The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said on Tuesday that a weak La Niña phenomenon was present in the Tropical Pacific, affecting the country probably up to the first quarter of 2025.
Pagasa Administrator Nathaniel Servando, interviewed by The Manila Times via Viber, said the weather pattern would persist at least up until March.
Pagasa said periods of cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that started in September 2024 continued and strengthened to La Niña conditions in December 2024, as shown by the recent oceanic and atmospheric indicators.
“La Niña condition exists if a one-month sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) of -0.5°C or less is observed and an expectation that the 3-month SSTA (Oceanic Niño Index) of -0.5°C or less will be met (i.e., December-January-February (DJF), January-February-March (JFM),” Servando said.
He said higher chances of above-normal rainfall from January to March are expected which may cause floods, flash floods, and rain-induced landslides.
Furthermore, the Pagasa official said that an increased chance of tropical cyclone activity within the Philippine Area of Responsibility during the period would be likely.
With 19 to 20 storms expected this year, Servando cited Pagasa’s data and analysis which indicated that one tropical cyclone each was expected in January and February and either none or one in March.
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