(UPDATE) INCOMING US President Donald Trump confronts a pivotal challenge in countering China’s growing dominance in the South China Sea (SCS) — a crucial geopolitical hotspot where the Philippines, a long-time ally, has faced persistent obstacles in asserting its sovereign rights.
Retired US Air Force colonel Ray Powell, director of Stanford University’s SeaLight maritime transparency initiative, emphasized the critical need for decisive action as he pointed out that China exploits perceived weakness. This makes it essential for the US to project strength to protect its interests and those of its regional allies, he said.
The South China Sea has long been a flashpoint of territorial tensions, with China claiming nearly the entire area through its “nine-dash line,” a demarcation rejected as baseless by the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling in favor of the Philippines. However, Beijing has refused to recognize the ruling and has continued to build artificial islands, install military outposts, and deploy coast guard and militia vessels to enforce its claims.
The Philippines, which refers to the eastern parts of the South China Sea as the “West Philippine Sea,” has faced numerous incidents of Chinese harassment, including in areas like Recto (Reed) Bank and Pag-asa (Thitu) Island.
The US has historically played a significant role in the region, conducting freedom of navigation operations and supporting its allies under its Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines. However, concerns have grown over perceived US inaction, particularly during the Obama administration, which many critics say emboldened China’s maritime expansion.
Powell emphasized the need for a multi-faceted approach to counter Beijing’s assertiveness. He said strengthening US-Philippine relations could start with joint development of the Recto Bank’s natural gas reserves, a vital resource for Manila that remains inaccessible due to Chinese intimidation.
He argued that the US, unlike China, has no territorial ambitions in the South China Sea, allowing it to support the Philippines without encroaching on its sovereignty. This distinction, Powell suggested, offers an opportunity to reassert US influence in the region.
Additionally, Powell called for enhanced naval operations, including joint US-Philippine patrols, to challenge China’s sweeping maritime claims.
He said supporting Philippine outposts, particularly on Pag-asa Island, through infrastructure development and civilian assistance, could further reinforce the alliance while showcasing tangible US commitment.
Expanding defense agreements, such as the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), to include more facilities in the West Philippine Sea would send a strong message of mutual defense and deter further Chinese aggression.
Powell likened the situation to President Trump’s bold decision to relocate the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem — a controversial move that ultimately solidified US resolve on a critical issue.
Similarly, decisive action in the South China Sea, he argued, is essential before China solidifies its control and the window for countermeasures closes.
He warned that excessive caution has only emboldened China’s strategic ambitions, and US leadership must rise to the challenge to reverse the current trajectory.
Powell said for the Philippines, such support could prove vital in reclaiming sovereignty and securing stability in one of the world’s most critical maritime regions.
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