Houthi attacks in Red Sea pose severe risk to global shipping

Disruption of maritime traffic continues as the Yemen-based Houthi

militant group, Ansar Allah, has intensified its attacks on commercial and naval shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

The Houthis are likely to continue to use a combination of uncrewed surface vessel (USVs), missiles and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) to target vessels, with USVs and uncrewed underwater vehicles (UUVs) much more likely to cause severe damage to ships.

While UAV and missile attacks have caused minor damage, the Houthis' increasing use of USVs and uncrewed underwater vehicles (UUVs) poses a grave risk. These technologies, capable of striking ships at the waterline with high accuracy and larger explosive payloads, could result in severe damage or sinking.

Jack Kennedy, head of MENA country risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence said, “Houthi targeting of commercial and naval vessels in the Gulf of Aden, Bab al-Mandab Strait, and Red Sea is likely to continue through 2024. Despite US-led coalition strikes on Houthi territory in Yemen, the risk for all vessels and crews transiting these waters remains severe.”

Data from S&P Global Market Intelligence showed that 39% of incidents since January 2024 have involved US- or UK-affiliated vessels. However, 59% of targeted vessels had no clear affiliation, indicating a broad threat to international shipping.

Houthis have largely avoided targeting hydrocarbon cargos, with crude oil tankers representing only 14% of the recorded targets. This selectivity is likely based on the tankers' national affiliations rather than their cargo.