We interrupt this optimistic time of year for some pessimism.
The preseason AP Top 25 is out and college football fans all over the country can dream about how this year it all comes together for their team.
Teams that begin the season ranked can be especially hopeful — but maybe curb your enthusiasm.
After 2021 and ’22 produced record turnover in the rankings from start to finish — a combined 29 teams ended those seasons unranked after starting in the Top 25 — last year was one of the chalkiest of the 2000s: 17 teams that started the season ranked finished it that way, the most since 2019.
Still, there was plenty of disappointment to go around, Looking at you, Southern California. Reality Check kicks off the season pondering how things can go wrong for each team in the preseason Top 25.
Opener: vs. Clemson in Atlanta, Aug. 31.
Reality check: Coach Kirby Smart’s roster is too stacked to realistically consider the Bulldogs becoming just the second team to be No. 1 in the preseason Top 25 and finish unranked (USC in 2012). However, three road games against top-six teams raises the degree of difficulty substantially from its SEC East schedule in recent years.
Ranking: Just right.
Opener: vs. Akron, Aug. 31.
Reality check: The Buckeyes are on a mission after three straight losses to Michigan, but they have a lot riding on a quarterback (Will Howard) who was never better than second-team Big 12 in four seasons at Kansas State.
Ranking: The Buckeyes are the only other viable choice for No. 1, but this is fine.
Opener: vs. Idaho, Aug. 31.
Reality check: The Ducks plugged defensive holes, especially in the secondary, through the portal. It looks pretty good on paper but how the newbies gel is critical. A leaky secondary can really undermine a potential playoff team. See: LSU last year.
Ranking: The buzz around the Ducks seems aggressive.
Opener: vs. Colorado State, Aug. 31.
Reality check: Texas is back doesn’t seem like a sarcastic joke after the Longhorns’ playoff run, but the best part of a solid defense last year were two game-wrecking interior linemen (Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat). Without them, transition to the SEC could come with some growing pains.
Ranking: Could be No. 3.
Opener: vs. Western Kentucky, Aug. 31.
Reality check: Replacing the greatest coach of all time has to come with some regression. Just how much can Kalen DeBoer limit it, now coaching in the toughest conference in the country?
Ranking: Even without Nick Saban, the Tide gets the benefit of the doubt.
Opener: vs. Furman, Aug. 31.
Reality check: Lane Kiffin has already warned that his team of portal All-Stars needs to be more than just a flashy assemblage of individual talent.
Ranking: Maybe we’re actually underrating the Rebels?
Opener: at No. 20 Texas A&M, Aug. 31.
Reality check: An inexperienced offensive line plus a new quarterback plus a new play-caller. That’s a lot of new stuff that needs to work well for a team that’s been penciled in as playoff-or-bust.
Ranking: Little high.
Opener: at West Virginia, Aug. 31.
Reality check: The Nittany Lions enter another season hoping for a No. 1 receiver (maybe Ohio State transfer Julian Fleming?) to emerge for quarterback Drew Allar.
Ranking: About right.
Opener: vs. Fresno State, Aug. 31.
Reality check: The Wolverines’ offense is almost a complete rebuild, starting at quarterback where third-year player Alex Orji is a physical specimen at 6-2, 235, with one career pass attempt.
Ranking: Too high for so much turnover.
Opener: vs. Georgia Tech in Dublin, Ireland, Aug. 24.
Reality check: The Seminoles returned to the field of elite teams last season. The next test for coach Mike Norvell is sustainability after saying goodbye to the core of that team. There is still talent, but Florida State needs new difference-makers and tone-setters to emerge and that’s not a given.
Ranking: Too low.
Opener: vs. Murray State, Aug. 29.
Reality check: The Tigers look like a prime candidate for regression. Remember, an 11-win season that ended with a bowl victory against Ohio State started with three September victories by a total of 14 points against Middle Tennessee, Kansas State and Memphis.
Ranking: Too high.
Opener: vs. Southern Utah, Aug. 29.
Reality check: Conventional wisdom suggests the return of QB Cam Rising and TE Brant Kuithe from knee injuries will have the Utes’ offense humming again. After missing an entire season, that is probably not a given.
Ranking: About right.
Opener: vs. No. 23 USC in Las Vegas, Sept. 1.
Reality check: The Tigers are replacing a Heisman-winning quarterback, two receivers drafted in the first round and their coordinator. Even if the defense improves — and it better — that’s a potentially huge dropoff on offense.
Ranking: Too low.
Opener: vs. No. 1 Georgia in Atlanta, Aug. 31.
Reality check: Coach Dabo Swinney is banking on the second season of QB Cade Klubnik as a starter in coordinator Garrett Riley’s scheme to finally fix an offense that has ranked 103rd, 72nd and 98th in the country in yards per play the last three seasons. The Tigers don’t just need a step forward, they need a quantum leap.
Ranking: Little high.
Opener: vs. Chattanooga, Aug. 31.
Reality check: Nothing like the promise of a five-star quarterback to raise expectations. Volunteers fans are fired up for Nico Iamaleava, surrounded by a strong supporting cast, but growing pains often come with first-year starters.
Ranking: Too low.
Opener: vs. Temple, Aug. 30.
Reality check: Substitute Jackson Arnold for Nico Iamaleava and add a transition to the Southeastern Conference and there is plenty of reason for skepticism about the Sooners.
Ranking: Just right.
Opener: vs. South Dakota State, Aug. 31.
Reality check: Coming off a 10-win season with one of the most experienced rosters in the country, what could go wrong? Plenty for a team that managed to reach the Big 12 title game with one of the worst defenses in the country.
Ranking: Too high.
Opener: vs. UT Martin, Aug. 31.
Reality check: Another team preparing to unleash a second-year five-star quarterback, Avery Johnson. Transition elsewhere on offense and at coordinator could hold back a breakout performance by the Kansas native.
Ranking: Too low.
Opener: at Florida, Aug. 31.
Reality check: The Hurricanes could be this season’s Texas. Third-year coach (Mario Cristobal), coming off two seasons of underwhelming results on the field but with a roster built for a breakout. Do Cristobal and his staff have the ability to bring it all together the way Steve Sarkisian and Co. did last year in Austin?
Ranking: Little low.
Opener: vs. No. 7 Notre Dame, Aug. 31.
Reality check: The Aggies probably would have declined the preseason ranking if given a choice, coming off three straight seasons of underachievement under Jimbo Fisher. Expectations are more modest this season and the roster is pretty tantalizing, but it’s one thing to flip a program’s fortunes in the ACC — as coach Mike Elko quickly did at Duke. It’s quite another to do it in this SEC.
Ranking: Too high.
Opener: vs. New Mexico, Aug. 31.
Reality check: New coach Brent Brennan and his staff held on to headliners QB Noah Fifta and WR Tetairoa McMillan after Jedd Fisch bolted for Washington, but the coaching transition will make it much tougher for the Wildcats to sustain last season’s leap forward.
Ranking: About right.
Opener: vs. Lindenwood, Aug. 31.
Reality check: The Jayhawks have a lot riding on the health of QB Jalon Daniels, who has been limited to 12 games the past two seasons because of injuries.
Ranking: Too high.
Opener: vs. LSU in Las Vegas, Sept. 1.
Reality check: Will a massive overhaul to the coaching staff fix the defense? QB Caleb Williams isn’t around to bail out the Trojans anymore. Lincoln Riley has a lot to prove.
Ranking: Too high.
Opener: vs. Western Carolina,
Reality check: For the second straight year, the Wolfpack bring in a dual-threat transfer quarterback to perk up the offense. It didn’t work last year with Brennan Armstrong. Will it be different with Grayson McCall?
Ranking: Too high.
Opener: vs. Illinois State, Aug. 31.
Reality check: The offense has to get better, right? Right?
Ranking: Just right.
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Follow Ralph D. Russo at https://twitter.com/ralphDrussoAP
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AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/college-football
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