Economic optimism declined in 3rd quarter—PAHAYAG survey

More than half of Filipinos remain hopeful about the country’s economic prospects, but optimism dipped from the second quarter, according to a new survey by PUBLiCUS Asia.

The third-quarter PAHAYAG survey found that 53 percent of respondents believe the economy will improve in the coming quarter, down from 58 percent in the second quarter and 57 percent a year ago.

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About 21 percent expect the economy to worsen, up from 19 percent in the second quarter and 22 percent a year earlier. Twenty-six percent say they don’t expect the economy to change significantly.

The independent survey, conducted between Sept. 15 and 19, 2024, involved 1,500 Filipino registered voters.

While Filipinos are less optimistic about the national economy, they remain relatively positive about their personal finances.

Sixty-two percent believe their household financial prospects will improve in the next quarter, down slightly from 64 percent in the second quarter but similar to a year ago.

Meanwhile, 14 percent says it will worsen, up from 13 percent in the second quarter and 14 percent a year ago. Twenty-five percent says it will neither improve nor worsen.

PUBLiCUS Asia attributed the declining optimism to a perceived weakening of the country’s current state and a growing sense that the government is not heading in the right direction.

The survey found that 36 percent of respondents believe the country is in a strong state, down from 38 percent in the second quarter and 43 percent a year ago. Thirty percent say the current state of the country is weak, up from 26 percent in the second quarter. Thirty-four percent say the current state of the country is neither weak nor strong.

“Weakening perception of the country is pulled by all regions except NCL [NCR and Luzon], the president’s stronghold. However, even NCL registered voters feel the decline in economic prospects together with the rest of the country,” it says.

“Optimism of Filipinos is not easily diminished, stabilized from last quarter’s slight dip, but remains at lowest since 2023, possibly still balanced by the relatively higher positive outlook towards each household’s financial prospects,” it says.

The survey found that 50 percent believe the current direction of the country is right, down from 54 percent in the second quarter and 61 percent a year earlier. Twenty-four percent says the current direction is wrong, up from 19 percent in the second quarter and 18 percent a year earlier.