AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Maryland on Election Day

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WASHINGTON — Maryland voters will decide a competitive race for U.S. Senate on Election Day, a rarity for the left-leaning state. The high profile contest pits a Democratic county executive against a Republican who has twice won statewide.

While Maryland isn’t attracting significant attention from either major party presidential candidate, the Senate race has become one of the most closely watched contests in the country. Maryland will also fill three open seats in the U.S. House, while Mayor Brandon Scott seeks reelection in Baltimore. Voters also will decide whether to approve an amendment enshrining abortion rights into the state’s constitution.

In the Senate race, Republican former Gov. Larry Hogan faces Democrat Angela Alsobrooks. Hogan and his GOP allies are spending more than $40 million to flip Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin’s open seat, according to AdImpact, which tracks ad spending. Alsobrooks won an expensive primary, and she and other Democratic groups have spent or reserved around $30 million in ads since the general election officially began. Cardin is retiring.

Alsobrooks and Democratic groups are making the case to voters that even if they voted for Hogan in the past for governor, it’s a different calculus when voting for a Senate candidate who will help determine whether Republicans control the chamber. While Hogan was elected governor in 2014 and reelected in 2018, Maryland hasn’t sent a Republican to the U.S. Senate in more than 30 years.

Democratic Rep. David Trone unsuccessfully ran for Senate instead of reelection, leaving an open seat in the 6th Congressional District in western Maryland. Democrat April McClain Delaney, who is married to former Rep. John Delaney, is running for that seat against 2022 GOP nominee Neil Parrot in a race that’s seen millions of dollars in Democratic spending.

Democratic Reps. Dutch Ruppersberger and John Sarbanes are also retiring, though their open seats have attracted far less attention than the 6th District race.

The presidential ballot includes Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, Republican former President Donald Trump and three third-party candidates. The last Republican presidential candidate to win Maryland’s Electoral College votes was George H.W. Bush in 1988.

The Associated Press doesn’t make projections and will declare a winner only when it has determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race hasn’t been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, like candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear it hasn’t declared a winner and explain why.

Here’s a look at what to expect in the 2024 election in Maryland:

Nov. 5.

8 p.m. ET.

10 awarded to statewide winner.

President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Jill Stein (Green) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Unaffiliated).

U.S. Senate: Alsobrooks (D) vs. Hogan (R) and one other.

Ballot measure: SB798 (right to reproductive freedom).

U.S. House and Baltimore mayor.

2020: Biden (D) 65%, Trump (R) 32%, AP race call: Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020, 8 p.m. ET.

Registered voters: 4,552,017 (as of Aug. 1, 2024). About 48% Democrats, 22% Republicans.

Voter turnout in 2020 presidential election: 68% of registered voters.

Votes cast before Election Day 2020: about 82% of the total vote.

Votes cast before Election Day 2022: about 45% of the total vote.

Votes cast before Election Day 2024: See AP Advance Vote tracker.

First votes reported, Nov. 3, 2020: 8:55 p.m. ET.

By midnight ET: about 8% of total votes cast were reported.

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Associated Press writer Maya Sweedler contributed to this report.

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Read more about how U.S. elections work at Explaining Election 2024, a series from The Associated Press aimed at helping make sense of the American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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