AP Decision Notes: What to expect in New York on Election Day

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WASHINGTON — New York is a Democratic-leaning state, but it is still a major priority for Republicans on Election Day.

Half a dozen U.S. House races in New York have become highly competitive, making it a key state in the race to control the chamber.

Democrats are hoping to flip two Long Island districts: the 1st District in Suffolk County and the 4th District in Nassau County. In the 1st District, Republican Rep. Nick LaLota faces a challenge from Democrat John Avlon. In the 4th District, Republican Anthony D’Esposito faces a rematch against 2022 Democratic nominee Laura Gillen.

Another three Republican freshmen are facing competitive races further north: Reps. Mike Lawler, Marc Molinaro, and Brandon Williams. The three congressmen and D’Esposito represent districts that President Joe Biden carried in the 2020 election, making them top priorities for Democrats. Across the aisle, Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan is also running in a competitive race.

Republican former President Donald Trump and Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris are competing for New York’s 28 electoral votes. The state hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential nominee since Ronald Reagan in the 1980s. Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is also on the ballot seeking a third full term.

In the state Legislature, Democrats have a lopsided advantage but a net loss of a few seats in either chamber could cost them their supermajority. All state Senate and Assembly seats are up for election in November.

Voters will also decide a ballot measure called the “ Equal Rights Amendment,” which is largely backed by Democrats and supporters of abortion rights. While the proposal doesn’t specifically mention abortion, it would bar discrimination based on “pregnancy, pregnancy outcomes, and reproductive healthcare and autonomy.” New York is one of 10 states where voters will decide abortion-related ballot questions on Nov. 5.

Here’s a look at what to expect in the 2024 election in New York:

Nov. 5.

9 p.m. ET.

28 awarded to statewide winner.

President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R).

U.S. Senate: Gillibrand (D) vs. Michael Sapraicone (R) and one other.

4th Congressional District: D’Esposito (R) vs. Laura Gillen (D).

17th Congressional District: Lawler (R) vs. Mondaire Jones (D) and one other.

18th Congressional District: Ryan (D) vs. Alison Esposito (R).

Ballot measure: Constitutional Amendment 1 (Equal protection of law).

U.S. House, state Senate, state Assembly, state Supreme Court and New York City ballot measures.

2020: Biden (D) 61%, Trump (R) 38%, AP race call: Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020, 9 p.m. ET.

Registered voters: 13,108,347 (as of Feb. 27, 2024). About 49% Democrats, about 22% Republicans, about 24% independent.

Voter turnout in 2020 presidential election: 64% of registered voters.

Votes cast before Election Day 2020: about 51% of the total vote.

Votes cast before Election Day 2022: about 26% of the total vote.

Votes cast before Election Day 2024: See AP Advance Vote tracker.

First votes reported, Nov. 3, 2020: 9:28 p.m. ET.

By midnight ET: about 63% of total votes cast were reported.

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AP writers Hannah Fingerhut and Maya Sweedler contributed to this report.

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Read more about how U.S. elections work at Explaining Election 2024, a series from The Associated Press aimed at helping make sense of the American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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