THIS early, rice imports have surpassed last year’s level and could hit 4.2 million metric tons (MT) by the end of 2024, Department of Agriculture (DA) technical advisory group member and former undersecretary for rice industry development Leocadio Sebastian said on Wednesday at the International World Rice Conference Summit in Manila.
Citing data from the DA-Bureau of Plant Industry, Sebastian noted that as of Oct. 30, foreign shipments of the staple had totaled 3.8 million MT, exceeding the 3.6 million MT in 2023.
“So, that means [this] November and December, we will probably be expecting another 400,000 metric tons minimum,” he said while attributing the higher projected shipments to low domestic rice production due to typhoons and El Niño.
“We will probably raise [the imports] to about 4.2 million metric tons by the end of the year,” he added.
Domestic rice output may be lower than 19.41 million MT this year, following multiple typhoons that hit the country.
Palay (unmilled rice) production based on standing crop from July to September could have decreased to 3.35 million MT, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority.
This indicates an 11.9-percent decline from its actual output of 3.80 million MT in the same period in 2023.
“The production is already less than 900,000 metric tons in terms of palay compared to last year. The total production this year will be much lower than the 20 million [MT] that was produced last year,” Sebastian said.
This also explains why the Philippines needs to import more, either in December or in January, to meet the demand, especially during the lean months, he pointed out.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Manila office forecasts the Philippines will import around 4.7 million MT of rice this year, higher than the previous estimate of 4.6 million MT. The agency cited the return of India to the world market following the end of a 14-month export ban on non-basmati white rice on Sept. 28.
“Global trade is now set to rise in 2025, as top exporter India expands shipments and global rice prices are expected to fall,” the USDA said in its latest Grain report.
It also projected the Philippines will produce 12.3 million MT of milled rice this year, lower than the previous forecast of 12.7 million MT.
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