Merkado Barkada
November 18, 2024 | 8:54am
After closing above 7,500 in the first week of October, the PSEi has fallen 12% to 6,676 and has wiped away the entirety of the bull run’s gains. The exchange is back to where it was in late August. How will traders respond to that massive dip and Friday’s small (but significant) bounce?
> PH: The week starts fast, today, with the pricing of Top Line’s [TOP] IPO. The pricing date is more of a guideline than a deadline, so it’s normal for us not to hear anything until later in the day or even the next day. Tomorrow is the ex-date for the Q3 dividend payments of two REITs, Filinvest REIT [FILRT 3.10 unch; 111% avgVol] and RL Commercial REIT [RCR 6.00 ?1.2%; 27% avgVol], as well as for the gold producer, OceanaGold PH [OGP 14.96 ?0.1%; 151% avgVol]. Tomorrow also marks the end of the PHINMA [PHN 19.80 ?4.2%; 7% avgVol] stock rights offer period.
> INTERNATIONAL: Not really watching anything in particular, more trying to get a feel for the movement of things relative to the news coming out of the US as the country (and world) continues to prepare for Trump 2.0. Will the crypto rip continue? Will the memecoin rally trigger alt season? Does any of it matter?
MB BOTTOM-LINE: I don’t know how the pros feel, but for a small-timer like me, this just looks like a lot of uncertainty. Will Trump convert any of his insane ramblings into policy, and if so, how much? He seems quite serious about the tariffs thing, but will there be any adults in the room to moderate Trump’s approach? Will Trump implement an array of high-profile tariffs for optics but ultimately chicken out from going Full Trump (eliminating income tax and replacing it with tariff income)? All of these policies have (potentially) dire consequences for inflation and could alter the US Federal Reserve’s arc on interest rate cuts, and all of that will filter down into exchange rate changes as the value of the US Dollar shifts. That would definitely rock the US boat, and any rocking would make waves that all the other boats could feel to some extent.
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