FROM July 19-21, Typhoons Caring and Dante unleashed 558.8 millimeters (mm) of rain, surpassing the 30-year monthly average of 493.3 mm, according to Pagasa reports. This deluge, coupled with warnings from the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) State of the Climate in Asia 2024 report that Asia is warming twice as fast as the global average, underscores the dire threat of more extreme weather changes that seriously imperil lives, property, ecosystems, and economies. Nations like Hong Kong, Korea, the Philippines, Taiwan, and parts of China, situated in the typhoon belt, will bear the brunt of these shifts.
The escalating risks of flooding, rockslides, and landslides are a result of a critical imbalance: rapid urban development consistently outpaces essential environmental considerations in planning. Much of the land is already low-lying or tide-affected, yet unchecked growth often ignores natural hydrology. Wetlands are paved over, waterways constricted, and floodplains developed, creating vast impermeable surfaces that hinder natural water absorption.
This leads to a catastrophic surge in runoff that the outdated, insufficient, and often trash-clogged drainage systems in the National Capital Region simply cannot cope with. The consequences are increasingly severe: higher floodwaters, affecting larger areas for longer durations. The tragic landslides in Baguio, Batangas, and Rizal, along with the devastating loss of human and animal lives and destruction to property, are all avoidable.
Amid these alarming trends and systemic vulnerabilities, technological advancements offer a crucial lifeline for local governments to plan for and respond to calamities more effectively.
Forecasting with precision
University of the Philippines (UP) scientists, led by Dr. Alfredo Mahar Lagmay of the UP Resilience Institute (UPRI), developed an advanced impact-based flood forecasting system, released last year. This innovative system can predict specific areas likely to be affected by major floods 24 hours in advance, down to the barangay level, and even estimate the number of potentially affected people. It achieves this by adjusting global weather models to fit the Philippines’ unique geography and combining accumulated rainfall forecasts with 100-year rain return flood hazard maps. The system’s ability to accurately forecast flooding in areas like Davao, Palawan, and Borongan in early 2025 demonstrates its efficacy.
Lagmay also directs Project NOAH (Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards). Originally a Department of Science and Technology (DOST) program, it was updated in 2014 but subsequently defunded in 2017. However, the UPRI has since continued its operations. Project NOAH’s hazard maps and information are now accessible through the LyfSaver app, a private initiative by the YesFoundation. The app allows users to access crucial disaster-related information and even report floods in their areas.
AI in forecasting
Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are at the cutting edge of improving flood forecasting accuracy and lead times. These AI/ML models process vast streams of real-time data — from rainfall intensity and river water levels to soil moisture and high-resolution satellite imagery. By recognizing complex patterns within this data, these algorithms can predict flood risks with greater precision. Called advanced early warning systems (AEWS), these sophisticated networks move beyond simply reacting to rainfall; they are about predicting the precise hydrological response of a landscape.
The DOST last year successfully implemented the country’s first AI-based online weather forecasting system called the AI-Powered Weather Forecasting for a Resilient Philippines (AI-4RP). This system, developed in collaboration with US-based AI meteorology company Atmo Inc., delivers ultra-precise forecasts capable of tracking weather at a localized, neighborhood level. Leveraging Atmo’s advanced AI models, which are continuously trained on extensive local weather data, the system entered its second iteration in 2025. It now provides remarkably granular rain predictions every 15 minutes and extends accurate forecasts up to 14 days, representing a significant leap from previous three-hour updates and five-day forecasts.
This enhanced foresight is already proving crucial. The National Irrigation Administration (NIA) has adopted this AI-powered weather forecasting to predict potential dam water releases up to two weeks in advance, a vital tool for managing major dams like Magat and Pantabangan and minimizing downstream impact.
Real-time data backbone using IoT, GIS, digital twins
Internet of Things (IoT) and wireless sensor networks form the backbone of modern EWS, with networks of smart sensors strategically placed in rivers, reservoirs, and vulnerable urban areas. They continuously collect real-time data on water levels, flow rates, and other environmental parameters. This granular data is then transmitted wirelessly, feeding directly into the central forecasting models and providing hydrologists with an unprecedented, moment-by-moment picture of water movement.
Geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing provide the visual and spatial intelligence necessary for effective flood management. GIS is indispensable for mapping flood-prone areas, conducting detailed risk analyses, and visualizing the potential extent of a flood. High-resolution satellite imagery and drone data offer rapid assessment of damage post-flood, directing relief efforts to the most critical areas with precision.
Companies like Bentley Systems and Siemens have developed digital twins so advanced that their high-resolution, three-dimensional virtual replicas of physical environments can create real-time simulations. This allows authorities to simulate dynamic flood conditions, visualizing potential flood depths and extents with remarkable detail. Such simulations are invaluable for scenario planning, optimizing evacuation routes, and coordinating response efforts before a single drop of floodwater touches the ground. The Republic of Korea, for example, aims to make its digital twin solutions fully operational by 2026, setting a benchmark for the region.
Not resilience, but action is needed
Despite the billions allocated to flood control projects annually in the Philippines — over P300 billion allocated in 2025 alone — experts emphasize the need for a paradigm shift. President Marcos Jr., in a recent press conference, said that the country will face these “climate-related problems year after year.”
This is an inescapable truth. However, the country can enhance its capacity to withstand the escalating impacts of climate change and ensure the safety of communities in the face of increasingly frequent and intense deluges. This critical endeavor demands not only the full utilization of advanced technology but also a commitment to addressing systemic issues like inadequate governance, the implementation of a single, integrated flood-control master plan, and the prioritization of comprehensive climate adaptation measures that extend far beyond mere infrastructure.
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