SENTIMENT this week will likely be driven by developments including President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s report to the nation, the outcome of a US Federal Reserve meeting and a looming tariff deadline.
The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index rose for most of last week but fell ahead of the weekend to 6,413.18 as investors awaited fresh leads. It was still up 1.74 percent week-on-week but is down 1.77 percent since the start of the year.
Philstocks Financial Inc. research manager Japhet Tantiangco said bargain hunters helped the local bourse regain ground above the 6,400 level, though trading activity remained thin, “implying that the climb did not have strong conviction.”
Fresh catalysts will be crucial to sustain the market this week, he added.
“Investors will be looking forward first to President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s State of the Nation Address (SONA),” Tantiangco said.
“Detailed plans on how to keep inflation low and how to re-accelerate economic growth may boost investors’ sentiment.”
Marcos will be delivering the SONA after markets close and investors are expected to go over what policies and legislative measures are endorsed by the president.
Tantiangco added that investors would also be watching for second-quarter income reports, which, if robust, “are expected to lift the local market.”
Purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data for July due on Friday will likewise be monitored for signs of economic direction, he continued.
From a technical standpoint, Tantiangco said the market was facing challenges in staying above its 200-day exponential moving average.
Online stock brokerage 2TradeAsia.com, meanwhile, said “global markets are in a holding pattern as the Fed’s September meeting looms,” adding that any tariff-driven uptick in US inflation could derail expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026.
It also noted that the ongoing “Powell-Trump saga,” including a “20 percent chance of a Fed chair shake-up,” could emerge as a risk.
Domestically, successive storms are expected to have short-term economic effects, including “disrupted consumer confidence” and potential inflationary pressure on food prices.
A 19-percent US tariff on Philippine goods, just slightly lower than the 20 percent announced earlier this month but higher than 17 percent bared in April, could also “curb export growth and investor sentiment,” 2TradeAsia warned.
Global markets could end up reacting to the results of a meeting between US President Donald Trump and European Union chief Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday, especially with a Aug. 1 trade deadline looming.
2TradeAsia said the 19-percent tariff’s impact would be minimal as the Philippines’ “domestic-driven economy limits direct GDP (gross domestic product) impact.”
It highlighted the need to focus on “high-liquidity, domestically focused value stocks” amid volatile conditions.
Unicapital Group research head Wendy Estacio-Cruz also noted external risks with attention shifting to the US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week.
“Consensus points to a slim chance of a rate cut at that meeting, with discussions instead focusing on the possibility of two cuts later this year, assuming inflation continues to ease and economic data softens,” she said.
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