MANILA, Philippines — The economic contribution of the agriculture and fisheries sector would remain relatively flat this year as the country reels from extreme weather conditions and persisting pests and diseases, a unit of the University of Asia and Pacific (UA&P) said.
UA&P Center for Food and Agri Business (UA&P-CFA) projected that full-year gross value added (GVA) of the agriculture and fisheries sector may contract by 0.5 percent or grow by as much as 0.5 percent.
“This is generally lower than what the DA expects of one to two percent growth over 2024,” said UA&P-CFA executive director Senen Reyes in their recent mid-year food and agribusiness conference.
The GVA of the agriculture and fisheries sector last year grew by 1.2 percent.
Reyes noted that the anticipated onset of La Niña in the second half would impact crop production while livestock output continues to suffer from diseases such as African swine fever.
He pointed out that only the poultry sector would be the driving the industry in the second semester of the year.
Based on UA&P-CFA forecasts, crops subsector’s GVA would grow by 0.3 percent in the second half while its full-year performance would be a contraction anywhere between 0.5 and 1.5 percent.
The livestock sub sector would decline in the second half by 1.3 percent, bringing its full-year contraction between 0.5 and 1.5 percent also.
The poultry industry is projected to rise by 4.5 percent and post a 4.5 to 5.5 percent full-year growth this year, according to UA&P-CFA estimates.
Lastly, fishery sectors would fall by one percent in the second half, resulting in a full-year decline of 1.5 to 2.5 percent.
“Ten years or so ago the (National Economic and Development Authority) said that for us to be able to truly address poverty alleviation, (agriculture and fisheries) have to grow by three to four percent,” Reyes said.
“We are over the past 10 years and we are nowhere near that figure of three to four percent. There is still a lot of work to do in terms of agriculture and fisheries,” Reyes added.
Nonetheless, the UA&P-CFA cited some of the growth drivers of the agriculture and fisheries sector in the coming years including the Department of Agriculture’s three-year development program aimed at making farmers more productive and profitable.
“They target that the earnings of the rural workforce will be at par or comparable to white collar jobs. It is really a tall order but there are drivers so to speak for this plan,” Reyes said.
Other growth drivers include population and income growth, implementation of commodity roadmaps, retail sector expansion, improved weather conditions, food service industry growth and recovery of travel and tourism, according to Reyes.
“We look forward to the DA to really be able to implement and craft proper policies and programs for the betterment of farmers and fisherfolk and the entire supply chain in the food and agribusiness sector,” he said.
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